FIGURE 1

(Illustration: International Clearinghouse for Hydrogen Commerce)

Burns stated, "Hydrogen is environmentally clean, with pure water being the only emission. New technologies will give us the chance to remove the automobile from the environmental debate."

No one has the hydrogen market cornered. Hydrogen will help put American energy security and independence within reach, according to Burns, who said that 98 percent of the nation's current energy imports are from petroleum, and two-thirds of that imported petroleum goes to transportation. Hydrogen, he added, will ease geo-political instability, especially in the face of increasing demand for oil from emerging, highly populated emerging nations like China and India.

Hydrogen will dovetail with resource conservation. Burns said that while petroleum sources, particularly natural gas, are still the most affordable feedstock for sourcing hydrogen today, other technologies will be built that will become more competitive. Also, Burns pointed out that the United States is positioned to gradually reduce dependence on petroleum gradually over time, and could use friendlier natural gas-rich nations, such as Canada, as sources for hydrogen.

One example of new competitive sources would be wind-generated hydrogen. Stanford University researchers Cristina Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson reported in the May edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres and Science magazine that the United States has more than enough sustained and sufficient wind power to meet the nation's total energy needs. Furthermore, if the electricity generated was used to produce hydrogen, the researchers estimate it could be produced for a mean gas equivalent price of $2.16 per U.S. gallon.

Speed bumps ahead

Change doesn't come without a price tag. Burns pointed out that cost, infrastructure (storage, reforming and delivery), regulatory standards and HFC vehicle durability and reliability all present hurdles.

"Hydrogen is 1.3 times more expensive that the gasoline equivalent today. But the gap is narrowing, and increasing world demand for petroleum will squeeze that gap," said Burns. 

The White House's Office of the Press Secretary quantified the gap in a fact sheet accompanying President Bush's comments above which said, "New technology has contributed to a reduction in the cost of natural gas-based hydrogen production from $5 per gallon in 2003 to $3.60 today."

The transition to hydrogen can piggyback on the existing gasoline distribution system, by using petroleum hydrocarbon reforming processes that are already available. Moving from an oil-based (e.g. natural gas) system to one based on hydrogen cannot happen overnight. It will require a period of time to ease society out of the familiar and comfortable oil-based economy and into the new one based on hydrogen. 

Technology that uses the existing oil-based infrastructure (gasoline and gas stations, natural gas and pipelines) to power HFCs will make it easier for consumers to move to the new hydrogen-based technology. It will allow consumers to use a fuel source that is familiar and readily available and, at the same time, become accustomed to an entirely different energy source. Hydrocarbon fuel reforming into hydrogen also allows added time to create a hydrogen infrastructure, using entirely different sources such as wind, sunlight, or water.

According to Burns, the largest challenge to fuel cell commercialization is infrastructure. Production, storage, distribution and delivery systems for supplying fuel will have to change. Government initiatives and cooperation between industries is making this happen. 

Burns outlined a network of 11,700 hydrogen fueling stations across America. Residents in the top 100 urban centers in the United States, representing 70 percent of the American population, would be within two miles of a hydrogen station. In addition, the 130,000 miles of interstate highways would have a hydrogen fueling station every 25 miles. He explained, "GM estimates it would cost less than $15 billion to construct this network of hydrogen fueling stations across America. By comparison, if the Alaska Pipeline were built today, the cost would be $25 billion." Hydrogen is doable and more affordable than many think.

Federal and state codes and standards regarding safety, installation and operation are being developed, according to Burns. Making the transition to a hydrogen-based economy needs the teamwork and partnership between government and the major players like the vehicle producers, parts manufacturers, energy firms and academic institutions. Partnerships in various projects, government leadership, incentive programs for both producers and consumers are all needed, and being put into place. Likewise, education for the consumer population and the service industry is needed. 

Burns addressed durability and reliability of HFC vehicles with confidence: The cost of fuel cell stacks has decreased tenfold in just three years. GM also has reduced the cost of the propulsion system by a factor of three in the last two years, and has improved the energy power density produced by a factor of seven times over the past six years. Burns added that GM hydrogen vehicles have sustained a driving range exceeding 300 miles per fill-up and cold start-up ability at minus 4°F. He said that GM is driving towards endurance comparable to internal combustion engines, namely 150,000 miles, at a cost competitive with traditional internal combustion automobiles by 2010. 

Burns illustrated how GM is using its fleet of HFC vehicles throughout the nation to further research, as well as to help with education and increasing public awareness. This fleet includes the Hydrogen 3 and Hy-Wire vehicles, Sequel SUV, U.S. Army's Silverado Sierra Pickup, and the Department of Energy Hummer. Going forward, Burns indicated that by 2010, at least five models would be available to consumers ranging from the Hydrogen 3 priced near $30,000 to a crossover SUV under $60,000. 

Burns continued, "No longer will a vehicle have to be built around an internal combustion engine and mechanical parts." He explained that the HFC propulsion system is housed entirely in an 11-inch-thick skateboard-like chassis. By-wire controls attached to the chassis through a single docking port use electrical signals instead of mechanical links of hydraulics to control steering, acceleration and braking. Without an engine, steering column or other conventional vehicle components, this concept provides unprecedented design freedom. 

Burns summarized the impact that HFC vehicles will bring to the market, when he said, "Electric drive offers a lot of advantages, such as the torque characteristics and flexibility in how you distribute electricity out to the wheels and change the vehicle packaging. So we believe that the convergence of electronics technology and computer software with hydrogen and fuel cells is literally putting us in a position to totally rethink what automobiles might be like." 

Aftermarket implications 

So what are the implications for the aftermarket service industry? Motor Age had an opportunity to drive the Hydrogen 3 at Northwestern University, accompanied by a GM master service technician. Afterwards, an interview with Burns garnered several additional insights.

FIGURE 2

(Photo: GM)

HFC vehicles will have 90 percent less mechanical and hydraulic parts. As the skateboard's cutaway view in Figure 2 shows, the components that parts manufacturers and technicians handle will transition to the coming generation of HFCs, software, electronics, three phase electric motors, converters, inverters, and actuators. The inclusion of a lithium ion battery that recaptures energy when decelerating, to then use when accelerating, is another component to become familiar with.

HFCs automobiles will not have to support various fuel delivery platforms, such as gasoline, diesel, propane, natural gas, etc. Those will be borne upstream, which will change the type of parts manufactured and distributed to the aftermarket. Burns stated, "For years, the vehicle has borne the burden of accommodating the various engines and parts to burn various fuels. GM sees future vehicles simply using hydrogen, no matter what its source is. Let the pathways compete for use by the car."

In regards to the propulsion system, the skill shift from mechanical and hydraulics to electronics and software will accelerate and deepen. When asked what a technician should be concerned about Burns answered, "If you are a 35-year-old service technician today, plan on being in school a lot more." Education and training will need to synchronize with the coming HFC-related technologies. 

Remote diagnostics could play a role in the HFC car of the future, according to Burns. Technology like OnStar can leverage off of the increased software and electronic controls and sensors, to monitor and notify car owners and service facilities by e-mail of the need for pending maintenance, based on picking up an abnormal signal. Burns also spoke of the potential to repair or improve performance by using satellite technology to send updates directly to HFC vehicles.

No longer will the passenger compartment be built around an up-front bulky engine and related components. The skateboard concept increases available interior space, which can then be designed with consumer utility in mind. Amenities for the passengers will be accessories the aftermarket will participate in. Climate control, entertainment functions, navigation systems and personalization will still be wanted by consumers, but they may well be supplied differently. Music and video could, for example, be downloaded through computers employing wireless transmitters, not unlike homes today. 

The more complex skill set and education required of technicians is self-evident. Those skills will be in demand in other sectors of the hydrogen economy as well, as HFC can power buildings, homes, industrial plants, trains, planes and more. Shop owners and consumers will need to recognize this. To ensure attraction and retention of technicians, shops will have to provide adequate income, benefits and working conditions to remain competitive.

Owners need to consider the coming HFC revolution when considering and planning their exit strategies for retirement. Owners wishing to pass their business on to family or to sell them to trusted employees or a third-party must plan and invest in keeping pace with the coming changes or face seeing their business' value erode.

There is still time to make the necessary changes Burns said. While HFC vehicles are available now, automakers will not be ready with large numbers of affordable vehicles for a few years. Burns suggested the aftermarket has 10 to 15 years to be up to speed, comparing the pending changes to the similar timeframe it took for electronics to become mainstream in the aftermarket. But, better to be early than late, he added.

"While we've made dramatic progress in improving the automobile - its environmental cleanliness, energy efficiency, safety and design - quite honestly the genetic makeup of today's cars is very much like those of 100 years ago," says Burns. "It has served us well, but other industries over that same century have undergone radical transformations driven by technology and innovation." In communications, telephone lines shifted to wireless, the change leaving some poorly prepared phone companies behind. In computing, the shift was from large mainframes to the personal computers of today, challenging established computing firms to morph or wither. Why not automobiles?

At a recent industry panel discussion, a GM executive was asked about the wisdom of his company's investment of more than $1 billion in hydrogen. "How can you be so sure," he was asked, "that 30 years from now there will be a supply of hydrogen to run this new car of yours?" 

The GM executive paused for a moment and then responded, "How can you be so sure that 30 years from now there will be a supply of gasoline to run your car?"

The paradigm shift to hydrogen is coming. In sharing a maxim he and his staff at GM's Research and Development abide by, Burns said, "We believe in doing unto ourselves, before others do unto us."

Is the aftermarket service industry listening?

- By Bob Chabot, Contributing Editor